Monday, February 16, 2009

The best poker player in the world.

I was reading a 2+2 thread the other day, when I stumbled across a patron claiming that Durrr was not the best poker player in the world. He gave some bad reasons, and then proceeded to argue them viciously. Now, I don't claim to know who the best player in the world is, but Durrr is certainly top three or four no question.
So, I added my two cents to the conversation. I think the best poker player in the world is the one that I would most like to be. This person is undoubtedly one of these players, Cole South, Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonious, or Foxwoods Fiend. The reasoning behind this is that these players are not only amazing on the tables, but are active, good looking, and amazing off the tables. To see what I'm talking about just listen to Cole south speak in this podcast...the guy has life figured out.

http://mediocrepokerradio.com/podcasts/

On the poker front, progress is coming along....very slowly. I'm mixing heads up back into my game. And slowly moving back up the stakes to where i should be playing. I'm still running hellishly below EV and i just have to remember that it all evens out some day...but that day needs to come soon!

Getting excited for the Virgin Islands! Also getting an Iphone today...so those are the two things that are making me almost as balla as Cole...now all i need is a million dollar bankroll and a bently. All in good time! Bye nows!

Friday, February 13, 2009

Time for some more philosophy

Deregulation vs. Regulation

While watching the news this past week I've seen a few staunch conservatives clinging to the idea that the markets will take care of themselves, and regulation breeds inefficiency that will deepen the financial crisis to new levels. This, I believe, is an outmoded concept. With all of history as my lab work, I believe it's easy to see that Deregulation and laissez-faire economics, while unarguably most efficient, is also least desirable. The purpose of this little tirade is to show that there is something in the human nature, namely empathy, that is stronger within our species, the consequences of which are that we find brute efficiency less desirable than inefficiency.
Ronald Coase a former teacher at the University of Virginia, wrote a paper on why laissez-faire economics is clearly the most efficient of all forms of economy. The paper is straight up brilliant, and elucidates his point now known as the "Coase Theorem" in a number of interesting examples. One of which I will describe here.
Imagine if you will a train track that runs between two farmers fields. Trains have the unfortunate side effect of "throwing sparks" as they roll by. The farmers had lost considerable amounts of productivity due to crop fires started by the train. One day the Farmers decide to contact the authorities to look for solutions to the ever growing problem. The authorities decide that the law stands on the side of the farmers, and that the train must find some way of compensating.
Coase was the first economist to fully understand the externality (effect ones actions have on a 3rd party) that the train was causing. His ground breaking paper wrote that externalities work both ways, and while it is true that the farmers are suffering an externality of sparks burning their fields, the train is suffering the externality that the fields are catching fire due to their sparks; if there were no fields, there would be no spark fires. Well duh! you might be thinking to yourself. But the fact of the matter is, that this opens up an array of possibilities that may be more efficient than the possibilities afforded to the train company by a judge siding with the farmers and making them pay the compensation.

The original options:
1.) The train tracks owners can pay the damages for lost crops.
2.) The train tracks owners can pay for a special filter that retards the sparks from flying.

The new options:
1.) Track owners can pay for farmers to move the crops.
2.) Track owners can pay for farmers to grow fire resistant crops (such as clover)

So in effect, Coase proved that if we decide on who is right and who is wrong within an externality relationship, we are creating inefficiency within that relationship because we are ignoring the dual nature of externalities. Thus, regulation that ignores this dual nature breeds inefficiency.
Before Coase came along, one of the most efficient way to deal with externalities was to internalize them via a "Pigovian tax" (named after its creator Arthur Pigou). Common current day examples include Carbon credits, and other forms of polution rights purchasing. This regulation is by Coase's theorem inefficient because it ignores the fact that if there were nothing to pollute, the companies would be better off. Thus the negative externality works both ways. However, I believe Coase is ignoring a fundamental problem with the processes themselves that the pigouvian tax seems to account for.
The problem with free markets, infrastructure, and the effects of empathy. My problems with the Coase theorem and free markets in general involve the setting up of infrastructures which in the short term seem efficient, but in the long term prove incredibly wasteful. The best example I can think of is the Gas station. When the oil boom first took root in American society, the largely deregulated industry created the U.S.'s first multimillionaires. We had discovered something so useful and so powerful that we could profitably create an infrastructure throughout the United States and make billions of dollars and create wealth where none had existed before. Enter the 21st century, much has changed. We are now so dependent upon the infrastructure of the oil economy, that to change it would require an unfathomable amount of effort. Imagine if you will that one day soon you realised that you would have to stop breathing air. The infrastructure your body has for air is so interconnected with your body that the feat would be all but impossible.
Fortunately, air is sustainable. There is a process by which air renews itself which is pounded into our brains from the time we are 12 and first learn of environmental cycles. Well oil isn't sustainable. It takes millions of years to create and there is no cycle known to man that can sustain the way we use it up. Thus free market capitalism takes unsustainable resources, creates an infrastructure around them, incorporates the infrastructure into our daily lives, then informs us that it won't be there forever.
The main point of this paper is that free markets drive short-sighted behavior for the purpose of profit creation. Thus, when given the Coasian choice of paying farmers to leave, or paying them to grow other crops, we are ignoring a fundamental flaw in the process itself! The trains could run without throwing sparks!!! But we don't correct the problem because it is inefficient.
The history that proves this argument can be seen throughout the world in the form of bubbles. America has been through a number of bubbles in the past few years due to the increasing deregulation of the economic system. Some would argue that these bubbles are a natural cycle and must be allowed to run their course. I believe that bubbles are not natural, but rather artificial creations of short sighted efficiency leading to long term inefficiency. The tech stock bubble of the early 90's is the perfect example. We found a resource we didn't fully understand, hyped it up, built web page after web page shipping centers all across America for companies like Amazon and Ebay. When all was said and done the bubble burst and many Americans late to the scene were left holding 10k shares of Netscape shares. This gets to my second point, that free market capitalism leads to decisions being made with a sever lack of empathy. Little thought is given to those exploited by the free market. Thus classes are created that widen constantly in the name of growth; unlike communism, which attempts to bring all the classes together in the name of equality. Ultimately the free market system fails for the opposite reason communism fails in practice . Communism fails due to human greed and free markets fail due to human empathy because there are limits to how much exploitation and equality human eyes can handle.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Ambience

Sooo, I've started to treat poker more like a job, and it seems to be paying off. My average day now consists of waking up around 10 am, showering, playing about 2 hours of poker, going to eat in the mall at I <3 Thai or Chipotle, working out for 45 minutes or so, grinding for 4 more hours then enjoying the evening with some poker sprinkled throughout peak hours. So far the results have been good. I haven't had a negative day so far this week, but I did drop down in limits substantially to figure out what was wrong with my game. I'm now 9 tabling 50nl with a winrate of 7bb/100 while running 4 buyins under expectation over 20k hands. Doing the math adjusting for expectation, (say 8bb's instead of 7) we get this hourly wage.

8x9=72/2(since a bb is 50 cents)=36x1(since we play about 100 hands an hour on each table)
so around 36 dollars an hour. Plus rakeback which has 240$ over the past 4 days...sooo
80/6 (hours played per day)=13$.

So overal hourly wage comes to around 50 an hour...a bit of a hit from what i'm used to, but more than worth it for some time to gain confidence and fix my game. So far 50nl has seemed WAAAAY easier than 100nl and above. Its so nice to get gifts stacks from total donks that have no clue how to play! I can't tell you how nice a feeling that is when you're used to working so hard for every stacking opportunity at higher levels.

In other news, I've found a new favorite TV station to watch while playing. Ambient music! Now I know what you're thinking, that stuff is boring and eventually you don't even hear it. EXACTLY MY POINT! Before, I was watching TV shows and/or listening to Obama speak. And while i do a fair bit of that still during lunch, it really sets money on fire if done while playing poker. I mean you got Obama talkin about TARPS and what not, and all of a sudden your caught in one.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Consistent...at least






I am a creature of habit and apparently so is fortune. Here are some graphs of my recent days... yesterdays tango with luck. The thin green line is the amount of money I should make if given hands in which all the money was in, the results were the avg. of an infinite number of regressions. In simple terms it's the Estimated Value of the situations I've stumbled into.








Another Gem from this month.







And of course the final straw is my year so far graph...being a millionaire by next december is looking substantially more difficult when things like this occur.


Its as if the jaws of variance are gaping wide open. Oh what big teeth you have.
As for my weekend in Cville. It was right back into the grindhouse. Squash with Mark, drinking and debauchery with the usual suspects. Never have I ever, sushi, and a fire pit. All in all a great time for all involved. On a more somber note, Harvard Steve may be leaving DC for good and will be missed very much. This news, along with the departure of a new acquaintance headed to the West coast to work for Rockstar Gaming, is making the world seem just a little bit older, a little bit colder. Yet with each friend departing I spread my travelling wings farther and farther from the central eastern seaboard.
On that front (the traveling one) Marky Mark booked tix to the Virgin Islands today. The plan seems solidified, now all we need is some good weather, some luck with the lunar alignment (full moon parties in VI would be sweeeeet), and some UVA guys or girls with a lil free time and extra coin over spring break. Calling all lovers of sun!

Friday, February 6, 2009

Back home...for a lil bit

Flew in yesterday round 2pm. St. Peacock picked me up from the airport saving me oodles of cash on a taxu (sp?). All told the chicago trip set me back around 3 to 4 k despite not having to pay for anything while I was there. The highlights of the trip were getting to workout everyday, playin with my lil cousins, and the superbowl of course.

First night back in Arlington, we went out to carpool and played some pool and shot the breeze. The people I went out with all work with Government contractors and they got to talking about their jobs. What I've concluded is that at some point in my life, I will want to have a real job. There seems to be some strange commradery in having to plow through the BS of everyday grunt work that I guess is analogous to pokerplayers bitching about bad beats etc. More than that though, at some point I want my own security badge AND just once! just once! I'd like to have my eye scanned to open a door!!!! Is that too much to ask? Furthermore, I'm convinced that while my friends are undoubtedly working less hard than I am at their chosen profession. I dunno if I've ranted about this before, but THE GOVERNMENT IS THE WORST RUN ORGANIZATION EVER!!!!! It sounds to me like everyone past the grunt work stage has WAY too much job security and doesn't do any work at all.
/rant

Slumdog for best picture of the year?
I'm pretty pissed that Dark night didn't make the cut...that's ridiculous.

Tonight I head to Cville to hang with Marky Mark and company. Cville might be the biggest site of all my debauchery. Some day soon i'll chronical a top 5 and post em here. It will be epic.
Until then lata and run good in life,
Trev

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Double Dragon

OK first things first, more hilarious comments from the lil guys.

Trevor: Is it worth it to go to the sears tower?
Colin: what's the sears tower
Trevor:............. :O
Colin: what's the sears tower??
Trevor: the tallest building in the US Colin...
Colin: OOOOOOH yeah its ok i guess, but where you really need to go is the Hancock!
Trevor: what's that?
Colin: The second tallest building in Chicago.
Trevor: why?
Colin: Because there's a view of the beach and an amazing bar and lots of single chicks.
Trevor: oh yeah? Single chicks?
Colin: Yeah they're all alone because their dates cancelled on them.
......

Maybe that's not funny but it just killed me cause he said the whole convo in such deadpan. All I know is that I would clean up at a bar like that!

The poker world sucks right now so i'm not gonna talk about that.

Last night we went to Olive Garden and I was reminded of my love for that place. I know its a chain or what not but I find each one to be unique and awesome in its own way.

Today I watched Double Dragon, which can only be described as a poor man's tinage mutant ninja turtles. It has a lot of famous actors from before they were famous, and one has to wonder how any of them made it after seeing that film.

That's all for now...

Ps. 3/3 on sports bets :) perhaps i have a future in that form of gambling.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

2/3 of the games are over...

...And I'm 2/2. What are these 3 massive sporting events making this the best weekend in sports. In order of appearance:
1.) BJ Penn vs. GSP
2.) Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal
3.) Superbowl Ari Cardinals vs. Pit Steelers

1.) I predicted GSP in this one simply because BJ Penn is an unbelievable talent but unbelievably overconfident. He is to MMA what I am to poker. Talented, cocky, and when he moves up he gets crushed. So when he decided to move up to fight George St. Pierre he was just not in his comfort zone anymore. In fighting, that spells certain doom and GSP didn't disappoint.

2.) We are privileged to be watching the best Tennis in the history of the game. I think this is true of most sports, by that I mean that the current players or teams are the best that ever played the sport. Few sports defy this overarching claim...with sports that have fallen out of favor being the exception such as boxing and....curling? The methods of training have improved with performance enhancing drugs (like whey protein not like GHB), the competition has improved with larger player pools, and the equipment has improved. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer may turn tennis into one of these rare sports. I've seen the greats battle through the magic of ESPN classic, and even Sampras, Agassi don't reach the level of Rafa Fed. The shots they hit on the dead run BACK TO BACK TO BACK are shots one might have seen once a year in every match up before this one.
I picked Rafa to win. Purely because the guy is an absolute FREAK mentally and physically. I'm of the opinion that we will never see a greater athletic mindset in any sport EVER EVER EVER. SERIOUSLY, THE GUY DOES NOT DROP MENTALLY FOR 1 NANOSECOND EVER EVER EVER. Physically the guy can get to more balls than anyone else in the game ever ever ever. I just feel bad for everyone playing during his era except for Federer. Federer is a different beast entirely. Mentally he's a genius on and off the court against everyone except for Rafa. He beats up on the rest of the tour and Rafa beats up on him, its a crazy dynamic. Rafa didn't disappoint despite playing a 5 setter against a kid who may make me eat my words, Fernando Verdasco. I've never seen a forehand crushed so consistently by anybody other than Federer and Verdasco's backhand was far superior to Federer's. Anyhow, Nadal was visibly gassed throughout the match, yet his unwavering mental stature reigned in thoughts of quitting and pain. Nadal won in 5 sets (go figure 5? really? 6-2 in the 5th? really?) and quite possibly is the best player ever. Unfortunately I believe that his drive will be his undoing and he will leave the sport of tennis far too soon. While he's here though, playing against the 2nd best player to ever play the game (imho) we must enjoy him, and the incredible points that are produced.
such as.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EA78J_Fc0sk
more to come when the rafa fed points get posted as they were believe it or not...crazier than this!

3.)Steelers vs Cardinals
Steelers should win this, will win this, Mike Tomlin is just too good at his job. The Cardinals probably won't cover the spread either, but I think it should be close until the 4th quarter.

Steelers to win
take the over on the points imo

Polamalu to seal the deal with a late interception,
Clark to knock someone out of the game (could be himself) the guy is a missile lol

Oh and if you've made it this far, Chelsea had one of the most epic rips of all time today on Colin.
Trevor: Why do you have all this homework and Colin doesn't.
Chelsea: Because I'm in all the honors classes and he's not.
Trevor: It's cool Colin already knows what he'll be doing when he's 50.
Chelsea: Yeah, stabbing trash on the highway.

That's all from Nostrevdamos