Maybe i'm spoilt

So yeah...I was getting kinda used to positive days...and today i didn't have one. I think it broke a streak of like 10 straight or so too...so sick...anyway, my dad was talkin about how risky my job was to me as I filled out taxes. So in order to show him the REEAAAAL riskiness. Here is a graph of my last 200k hands or so.

The blueline is the real bottom line for my last 200k hands of poker played. In this graph one can see there is some variance, but a clearly positive trend. In the section in the middle, I think i ran colder than the ice caps and still ground out some sort of profit if rakeback is included. Furthermore, the odds of me having a negative month playing hu have decreased dramatically since I started playing Heads Up (hu) as my winrate is much higher (one can see this in the latter 4th of the graph where I made the switch to all heads up). Hu is an interesting beast, because actual variance is higher, whereas odds of having losses over an extended period of time go down. The standard deviations I can expect to see from my winrate in HU are very large, but since my winrate is higher against open-mouth breathers (fish, donks, spewtards, monkeys, Kevin Sivaneri's, bad players...whatever you call them) when I have them all to myself more of my standard deviation range lies in the positive territory. This is why good heads up players should never ever play eachother. This is why Durrrrr's challenge to the poker world is absolutely terrible.

For those of you who don't know, Durrr (Tom Dwan) has put up 1.5 million dollars to any opponents .5 million dollars, that over 40k hands he can be up >1$ heads up at either texas holdem no limit or pot limit omaha hi. From what I've described above, one should quickly see that if a winrate of a heads up player approaches 0, the range of what he should expect to see will have a large portion in the negative realm. In order to win, if Durrrr really is the better player, with a 95% confidence interval, Durr would have to play over 1 million hands with anyone even close to his ability level. Patrick Antonious took him up on the challenge (wisely I might add) because essentially Durr is flipping a coin laying 3 to 1 against ur winning. A laughable proposition. They are in the midst of playing their challenge and the lead is waffling back and forth, but regardless of the outcome, Durrrr is a moron....a rich rich moron.

Regardless, From the above graph, one should be able to see my risk of ruin is very very low. I will never "go broke" unless I do something truly retarded (along the lines of drunk playing or something). Anyways, I will try to get some pictures up here sometime soon that aren't poker related...as all these graphs i'm sure are monotonaus. But to do so may require a trip somewhere....Foxfields is coming up in cville...and if last year was any indication, mayhem will ensue and pictures I will do!